# The 2027 Social Security COLA: What We Know Before the Announcement

> The 2027 COLA hasn't been announced yet. How it's calculated, where the estimates stand, the October 14 release date, and what it means for Coast FIRE.

Source: https://mycoastfire.com/social-security-cola-2027
Last updated: 2026-09-26

Social Security's 2027 raise will be set by one number the government hasn't published yet: September's inflation reading. Two of the three months that decide it are already in.

Status on September 26, 2026

SSA hasn’t announced the 2027 COLA yet. This page will be updated with the official figure the day SSA publishes it.

The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment hasn’t been announced. It will be set once the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September’s inflation data, which its [release schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) puts at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on October 14, 2026. Until then, the published forecasts range from 3.5% to 3.6%, which would be the largest raise since the 8.7% paid in 2023.

Those forecasts are estimates, not the COLA. The formula is simple enough that you can see for yourself how close they’re likely to be.

## How is the COLA calculated?

The Social Security Act spells out the formula, and SSA walks through it on its [latest COLA page](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/latestCOLA.html). Take the average of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August and September. Compare it with the same three-month average from the last year a COLA took effect. The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, is the COLA.

Here’s how that produced the 2026 raise. The third-quarter average CPI-W was 308.729 in 2024 and 317.265 in 2025. The increase is (317.265 − 308.729) ÷ 308.729 = 2.8%.

A few details matter more than they seem to. The index is the CPI-W, which tracks prices paid by urban wage earners and clerical workers, not a price index built around retirees. Only those three months count, so a spike in May or a drop in December doesn’t move it. And the COLA can’t go negative. If prices fall, there’s simply no raise, which is what happened for checks in 2010, 2011 and 2016, according to SSA’s [COLA history](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/colaseries.html).

The raise applies to December benefits, which are paid in January. SSI recipients get it with the January payment, which arrives at the end of December because of the New Year’s Day holiday.

## Where the 2027 COLA stands now

This year’s base is last year’s third-quarter average, 317.265. Two of the three months are in. BLS [data](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CWUR0000SA0) put the CPI-W at 327.104 for July 2026 and 328.481 for August, up 3.4% and 3.5% from a year earlier.

That lets you do the arithmetic yourself. If September’s CPI-W came in exactly equal to August’s, the COLA would be 3.4%. For it to round up to 3.5%, September’s reading has to be about 0.2% higher than August’s. A September reading about 0.1% below August’s would pull it down to 3.3%, and one about 0.5% above would push it to 3.6%.

Two published forecasts get quoted most often:

-   The Senior Citizens League [estimates 3.5%](https://seniorsleague.org/tscl-predicts-cola-at-3-5-with-one-month-to-announcement/), down from 3.6% after the August data came out on September 11.
-   AARP [projects 3.6%](https://www.aarp.org/social-security/cola-2027-increase-estimate/).

Neither is official. If you need a number before October 14, I’d use 3.5%. On $2,071 a month, the average retired worker’s check in January 2026 per SSA’s [fact sheet](https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/cola/factsheets/2026.html), that’s about $72 more a month, and the gap between the two forecasts is about $2.

Recent COLAs for comparison, by the year the raise was paid:

| Year paid | COLA |
| --- | --- |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2026 | 2.8% |
| 2027 | Not announced (estimates 3.5% to 3.6%) |

One caution on timing. SSA normally announces the COLA the morning BLS releases the September numbers, but that depends on the release going out on schedule. In 2025 a government shutdown delayed the September report, and SSA [announced the 2026 COLA](https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/press/releases/2025-10-24.html) on October 24 instead.

## What else changes when the COLA is announced

SSA announces several other yearly figures alongside the COLA. Most of them are tied to national wage growth rather than to prices, so they don’t move by the same percentage. Here’s where the ones that matter to early retirees stand, from SSA’s [2026 fact sheet](https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/cola/factsheets/2026.html).

### The taxable maximum

Social Security tax applies to wages up to a cap, which is $184,500 in 2026, up from $176,100. The 2027 cap comes from a [formula](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/cbbdet.html) based on the national average wage index for 2025, which SSA hasn’t published yet. The formula only applies in a year with a COLA, and SSA publishes the new cap in the same announcement. If you earn above the cap, a higher cap means more payroll tax and a slightly higher benefit later.

### The earnings test

If you claim before full retirement age and keep working, SSA holds back part of your benefit once your earnings pass a limit. In 2026 the limit is $24,480, and SSA [withholds](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/rtea.html) $1 for every $2 you earn above it. In the year you reach full retirement age, the limit rises to $65,160 and only $1 of every $3 is withheld, counting only the months before the month you reach it. From full retirement age on, there’s no limit.

This one matters if your plan is to coast in a part-time job and claim at 62. If you’re under full retirement age all of 2026 and earn $30,000, $2,760 of that year’s benefits would be withheld. It isn’t lost: SSA raises your monthly benefit at full retirement age to make up for the withheld months. The 2027 limits come out with the COLA.

### Medicare Part B

Most people on Medicare have the Part B premium taken out of their Social Security check, so the net raise depends on it. The standard premium is $202.90 a month in 2026. The Medicare trustees’ [2026 report](https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2026) estimates $209.50 for 2027, but the actual premium is set separately, later in the fall.

The same report explains the hold-harmless rule. For people whose premium is deducted from their benefit, which is roughly 70% of Part B enrollees, the dollar increase in the premium can’t be larger than the dollar increase in their Social Security check. The other 30% aren’t covered. That group includes people new to Medicare that year, people who pay a higher premium because of their income, and people who aren’t collecting Social Security, which means anyone who takes Medicare at 65 but delays their claim.

## What the COLA means for a Coast FIRE plan

Our Coast FIRE calculators work in today’s dollars, and so does the benefit estimate on your Social Security Statement. The COLA is what makes it fair to put those two things side by side. Your past earnings are indexed to national wage growth up to age 60. From the year you turn 62, each COLA is applied to your base benefit, as SSA’s [benefit formula page](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/Benefits.html) describes, whether or not you’ve claimed. A benefit quoted in today’s dollars should keep roughly today’s buying power once it starts.

So the right move is to enter your estimate as it appears and leave the COLA out of it. The mistake to avoid is mixing units. SSA’s online calculators can also show estimates in future, inflated dollars, and those are much bigger numbers.

Take Denise, who is 40, has $180,000 invested, adds $1,000 a month and wants to spend $60,000 a year from 67, her full retirement age. Her Statement shows about $1,900 a month at 67, or $22,800 a year in today’s dollars.

|  | Benefit ignored | Today’s dollars (right) | Future dollars (wrong) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Social Security counted | $0 | $22,800 | $48,056 |
| Spending the portfolio covers | $60,000 | $37,200 | $11,944 |
| Coast FIRE number at 40 | $536,209 | $332,450 | $106,740 |

The future-dollars column uses $48,056, which is what $22,800 grows to after 27 years of 2.8% raises. Plug that into a today’s-dollars calculator and Denise looks like she’s already coasting. Counted properly, her Coast FIRE number is $332,450, and at $1,000 a month she gets there at 57.

Denise's numbers, with Social Security

Enter $60,000 of spending, a $22,800 benefit claimed at 67, and 100% as the share to count, which matches the middle column above.

[Open the Social Security calculator](https://mycoastfire.com/coast-fire-calculator-with-social-security)

Two limits on the COLA are worth building into your plan. It follows the CPI-W, and your own costs may rise faster, especially health care in your 70s and 80s. And it protects the benefit that’s actually paid, which could be cut if Congress doesn’t act before the retirement trust fund runs short, currently projected for late 2032. That’s why I’d count something like 75% of your estimate if claiming is still decades away. Our post on [Coast FIRE with Social Security](https://mycoastfire.com/blog/coast-fire-with-social-security) goes through how much to count and how to cover the years if you stop working before your benefit starts.

If you’re years away from 62, this October’s number doesn’t change your Coast FIRE number. It raises the checks of people who are already past 62, and your spending target is already in today’s dollars. The figure that should move your plan is the estimate on your next Statement.

## Questions people ask

### When will the 2027 Social Security COLA be announced?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish September's inflation data on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and that's the last number the formula needs. SSA normally announces the COLA the same day. Last year a government shutdown pushed the release to October 24.

### When will the 2027 COLA show up in my payment?

It applies to December 2026 benefits, which are paid in January 2027. SSI works a little differently: the raise starts with the January payment, and because January 1 is a holiday, that payment arrives at the end of December.

### Do I get COLAs if I haven't claimed Social Security yet?

Yes, from the year you turn 62. SSA applies each COLA to your base benefit starting then, whether or not you've filed, so waiting to claim doesn't cost you any of them. Before that, your past earnings are adjusted for national wage growth instead.

### Should I add the COLA to the benefit I enter in a Coast FIRE calculator?

No. Our calculators work in today's dollars, and so does the estimate on your Social Security Statement. The COLA is the reason a today's-dollars benefit stays roughly in today's dollars, so adding it on top would count inflation twice.

## Keep reading

-   [Coast FIRE with Social SecurityHow much of your benefit to count, and how to bridge the gap.](https://mycoastfire.com/blog/coast-fire-with-social-security)
-   [Social Security calculatorYour Coast FIRE number with the benefit built in.](https://mycoastfire.com/coast-fire-calculator-with-social-security)
-   [Health insurance before 65Premiums before Medicare, and Part B after.](https://mycoastfire.com/blog/coast-fire-health-insurance-before-65)